Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd63e…0c21 sports 21 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$12
other 15% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 58% -4.6%
≤30d 19 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 58% -4.6%
≤90d 19 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 58% -4.6%
all 19 +5.0% -5.0% 58% 58% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 58% -4.6%
10% -14.1% 53% -13.8%
15% -22.4% 42% -22.1%
20% -30.0% 42% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$4 -73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 +$11 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 +$2 +78%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3 +$7 +238%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 +$3 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 +$3 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$1 +12%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $5 +$7 +147%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 +$2 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $7 +$4 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL 12¢ $1 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 54¢ $5 32h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $5 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 15¢ $1 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $5 35h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $2 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 47¢ $3 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $4 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 58¢ $6 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 59¢ $4 2d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 32¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 29¢ $3 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 60¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Vitality 100¢ $16 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 50¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 77¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $8 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 81¢ $11 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 59¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $10 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY 40¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 39 history records