Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D6 0xd63a…9603 crypto 315 markets active 1h ago coverage 148d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,286 (-1%) realized −$1,292 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate55%174W / 140L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$339est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$873now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,455
7 days−$1,105
14 days−$997
30 days−$692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% −$4,095
crypto 30% −$766
other 21% +$2,475
world 1% −$6
weather 1% −$63
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -8.7% -17.4% 50% 25% -13.0%
≤30d 29 -4.2% -13.3% 62% 41% -11.4%
≤90d 73 -7.3% -16.1% 53% 38% -10.5%
all 314 -8.4% -17.1% 55% 38% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 38% -12.1%
10% -25.1% 20% -20.5%
15% -32.3% 12% -28.2%
20% -38.9% 7% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$99 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

148d coverage
Net worth$873
Realized−$1,292
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses174 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$339
Open positions1
Markets (closed)314 / 315
History coverage148d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 314 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $866 $873 +$6 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,186 +$165 +8%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,024 −$931 -91%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $205 −$18 -9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2,259 +$651 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5,745 −$487 -8%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,224 −$2,800 -66%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $4,261 −$36 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,007 +$242 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,579 +$1,469 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $201 −$166 -82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,798 +$784 +44%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 11 $201 +$20 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $201 +$20 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 08 $204 +$12 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $102 +$40 +39%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 Jun 05 $85 −$85 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $505 +$81 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $139 +$43 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $402 +$44 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 27? May 27 $103 −$93 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $10 −$8 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $501 +$25 +5%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) May 26 $288 +$297 +103%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 21 $60 +$22 +36%
Spread: Knicks (-17.5) May 20 $50 +$11 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $303 −$290 -96%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid May 18 $303 +$83 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $542 +$215 +40%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1,692 +$370 +22%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $687 +$188 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $567 +$121 +21%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) May 11 $197 −$9 -5%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 11 $348 +$30 +9%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $270 +$78 +29%
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldw May 04 $205 +$202 +98%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 03 $103 −$16 -16%
Magic vs. Pistons May 03 $1 $0 -8%
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 29 $101 −$93 -92%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $26 +$71 +276%
1H Spread: Bulls (-3.5) Apr 21 $347 −$347 -100%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 09 $359 −$8 -2%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Apr 09 $397 −$26 -7%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $272 +$32 +12%
Mavericks vs. Spurs Apr 09 $861 +$22 +3%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $31 +$6 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Apr 08 $33 −$1 -3%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Apr 02 $10 $0 -1%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 02 $9 +$1 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $874 48m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $782 50m
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $92 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $545 21h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,024 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 69¢ $1,569 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $229 22h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $186 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,412 23h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 23h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,658 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,254 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $0 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $1,252 33h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $994 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 47¢ $997 34h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,415 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $28 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $1,396 34h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $4,224 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 57¢ $4,226 39h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 43h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $4,251 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 91¢ $4,261 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,330 43h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $4,007 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 SELL Over 16¢ $35 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,579 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,246 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $872.53 · official $872.53 (match) · 889 history records