Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd632…8afb other 336 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 163d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,618 (+23%) realized +$22,838 · open +$2,780
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate67%182W / 89L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$21,494now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$214
14 days+$39
30 days+$4,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% +$680
other 21% +$4,683
world 13% +$4,865
crypto 7% +$990
finance 3% +$895
economics 2% −$178
culture 1% $0
tech 0% +$448
sports 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -47.4% -52.4% 0% 0% -26.1%
≤30d 49 +29.1% +16.8% 61% 43% +30.6%
≤90d 161 +31.9% +19.4% 66% 39% +6.0%
all 271 +20.1% +8.7% 67% 36% +4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.7% 36% +4.2%
10% -1.7% 27% -5.8%
15% -11.2% 21% -14.9%
20% -19.9% 14% -23.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$43 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$21,494
Realized+$22,838
Unrealized+$2,780
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses182 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions90
Markets (closed)271 / 336
History coverage164d ⚠
Avg bet$338
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 90 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 100¢ $2,269 $2,291 +$23 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $1,965 $1,988 +$23 (+1%)
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes 36¢ 60¢ $987 $1,682 +$695 (+70%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $1,385 $1,561 +$176 (+13%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,410 $1,546 +$136 (+10%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 79¢ 100¢ $1,160 $1,464 +$305 (+26%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 81¢ $700 $1,128 +$428 (+61%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 81¢ $174 $1,019 +$845 (+487%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? No 95¢ 100¢ $955 $1,007 +$52 (+5%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 71¢ 100¢ $459 $650 +$191 (+42%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 66¢ 85¢ $416 $532 +$116 (+28%)
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? No 62¢ 86¢ $325 $448 +$123 (+38%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $353 $399 +$46 (+13%)
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $349 $341 −$8 (-2%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 77¢ 98¢ $242 $305 +$64 (+26%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of June? No 69¢ 100¢ $207 $300 +$93 (+45%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 19¢ $700 $272 −$428 (-61%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $261 $272 +$10 (+4%)
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $256 $266 +$10 (+4%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 75¢ 100¢ $166 $220 +$54 (+33%)
Will STRC hit $100 by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $174 $186 +$12 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 78¢ 92¢ $156 $183 +$27 (+17%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? No 91¢ 100¢ $160 $176 +$16 (+10%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $169 $173 +$5 (+3%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 75¢ $121 $162 +$41 (+34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 29 $0 $0 —%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 24 $996 −$163 -16%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 24 $152 −$32 -21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $120 +$80 +67%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $149 +$13 +9%
Testing Group Event 1 Jun 17 $51 +$50 +98%
Will STRC dip to $90 in 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $75 +$35 +47%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $109 +$62 +57%
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $166 +$12 +7%
Will OPEC crude oil production be above 21 million barrels per day in Jun 11 $127 +$55 +43%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 10 $67 +$148 +223%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $49 +$15 +31%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Will Enrique Riquelme win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $226 +$24 +11%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 08 $280 +$39 +14%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $91 +$10 +11%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $8.5B? Jun 07 $84 −$84 -99%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Jun 07 $313 +$38 +12%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $518 +$3,516 +679%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2B and $2.25B at market Jun 06 $244 −$167 -68%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 06 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $162 +$41 +26%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.25B and $2.5B at marke Jun 05 $79 +$30 +38%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on I Jun 05 $99 +$4 +4%
Will Sunshine Silver not IPO before August 2026? Jun 04 $53 $0 +1%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be less than $2B at market close on Jun 04 $12 +$15 +130%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 04 $1,980 +$16 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,294 +$45 +4%
Will Broadcom Q2 AI revenue be above $11.0B? Jun 04 $183 +$460 +251%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 03 $560 +$236 +42%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Snowflake Q1 Product revenue be above $1.275B? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +10%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 01 $25 −$25 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $457 −$72 -16%
Will Synopsys Q2 Design Automation revenue be above $1.8B? Jun 01 $62 −$36 -58%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $146 −$29 -20%
Will another outcome occur in the the first round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 01 $3 −$3 -92%
Will Jorge Nieto win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential Jun 01 $6 −$5 -92%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 01 $174 −$21 -12%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $366 +$24 +6%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $30 +$10 +35%
Will another candidate win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presi Jun 01 $0 +$1 +784%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 29 $163 +$37 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $25 1h
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $108 2h
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30? SELL No 71¢ $40 2h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 51¢ $51 8h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 52¢ $17 8h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 52¢ $35 8h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 51¢ $16 9h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 51¢ $51 9h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 10h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $17 27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $3 27h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $29 28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $0 28h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 99¢ $50 28h
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? SELL No 99¢ $8 46h
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 2d
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? SELL No 99¢ $5 2d
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? SELL No 99¢ $4 2d
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 2d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Will Carles Puigdemont be the next Prime Minister of Spain? BUY No 94¢ $95 2d
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,494.41 · official $21,493.78 (match) · 3500 history records