Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:27:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D6 0xd630…0c79 crypto 339 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+3%) realized +$93 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate93%313W / 24L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day71.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 36% -6.8%
≤30d 337 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 36% -6.8%
≤90d 337 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 36% -6.8%
all 337 +1.9% -7.8% 93% 36% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 36% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 0% -15.7%
15% -24.7% 0% -23.9%
20% -32.1% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$9 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$93
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses313 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)337 / 339
History coverage5d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day71.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 91¢ 94¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 94¢ 97¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$3 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +15%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$4 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 24 $4 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$3 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +12%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $26 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $29 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $28 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.57 · official $44.26 · 691 history records