Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:10:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

D6 0xd630…19c6 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$82 (-37%) realized −$81 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%4W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day11.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+22.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+35.2%	+22.3%	33%	33%	+2.6%
≤30d	12	+35.2%	+22.3%	33%	33%	+2.6%
≤90d	12	+35.2%	+22.3%	33%	33%	+2.6%
all	12	+35.2%	+22.3%	33%	33%	+2.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+22.3%	33%	+2.6%
10%	+10.6%	33%	-7.2%
15%	-0.1%	33%	-16.2%
20%	-9.9%	33%	-24.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +35% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -100% → late +170% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$15 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.19 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$46

Realized−$81

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses4 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions6

Markets (closed)12 / 18

History coverage2d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day11.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	24¢	24¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	38¢	38¢	$7	$7	−$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	18¢	18¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	14¢	14¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	24¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	32¢	30¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$10	+$22	+216%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$31	+$79	+257%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 20	$1	−$1	-98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$4	+$18	+442%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 20	$7	+$22	+307%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$4	−$4	-98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$3	−$3	-98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$87	−$85	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	100¢	$32	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	SELL Yes	100¢	$109	1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	54¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	30¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	19¢	$5	2h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	16¢	$5	2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	31¢	$10	3h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	20¢	$1	3h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	9¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	6h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	20¢	$5	6h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$5	10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	18¢	$5	10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	38¢	$2	10h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	30¢	$5	10h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia?	BUY Yes	10¢	$5	10h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	24¢	$7	11h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$4	12h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	38¢	$5	29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	32¢	$5	29h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$5	29h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$41	2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	22¢	$41	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.12 · official $46.12 (match) · 28 history records