Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd62e…f865 sports 80 markets active 18h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate25%20W / 59L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$13
other 14% +$45
politics 10% −$7
sports 4% +$34
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 17% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -8.8% -17.5% 20% 10% -10.5%
all 79 -1.4% -10.8% 25% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 13% -9.3%
10% -19.3% 13% -17.9%
15% -27.1% 13% -25.9%
20% -34.3% 13% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$4 · ×3.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses20 / 59
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage607d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $104 $104 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $31 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $22 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $32 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $30 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $200 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May? Jun 02 $89 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $27 $0 -0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 18 $6 +$7 +124%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 07 $156 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 3? May 06 $69 $0 +0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $146 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 25 $155 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $298 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 25 $142 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $152 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $142 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $151 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $150 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $144 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $11 +$7 +62%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $27 +$3 +10%
Red Wings vs. Flyers Apr 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Penguins vs. Islanders Apr 02 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $31 17h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $31 20h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 46h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 47h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $104 2d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 4d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $34 5d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $34 5d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $32 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $7 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 8d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 12d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $27 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 15d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.30 · official $104.30 (match) · 302 history records