Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd62c…e0a4 crypto 41 markets active 19d ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-7%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate27%11W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$7
world 7% −$10
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 29 -21.3% -28.8% 28% 10% -13.8%
≤90d 40 -19.0% -26.7% 28% 8% -20.3%
all 41 -18.6% -26.4% 27% 7% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 7% -20.3%
10% -33.4% 2% -27.9%
15% -39.9% 2% -34.9%
20% -45.8% 2% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses11 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage77d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 10 $7 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 12 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 12 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 12 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 12 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 12 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 10 $1 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 09 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 09 $1 $0 +7%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $1 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records