Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd62b…2ee4 world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$3
other 23% $0
politics 21% −$1
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 14 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 14 -0.7% -10.1% 29% 0% -10.2%
all 45 -2.3% -11.6% 40% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -9.9%
10% -20.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -27.8% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage424d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $87 −$2 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $27 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $50 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $30 −$2 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 27 $1 $0 -27%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $17 $0 -1%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 21 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 18 $19 −$3 -14%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $23 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 13 $6 $0 +4%
Will Poland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 11 $23 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 6? May 10 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 07 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? May 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? May 07 $18 +$1 +8%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 28 $2 −$1 -30%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 27 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 27 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 23 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $25 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 15h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $27 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $20 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 87¢ $20 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $26 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $24 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $18 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $9 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $28 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $28 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records