Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:59:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd629…34f2 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+44%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$25
other 45% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +29.8% +17.4% 40% 40% +29.3%
≤30d 15 +29.8% +17.4% 40% 40% +29.3%
≤90d 15 +29.8% +17.4% 40% 40% +29.3%
all 15 +29.8% +17.4% 40% 40% +29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 40% +29.3%
10% +6.2% 40% +16.9%
15% -4.1% 40% +5.6%
20% -13.5% 40% -4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +335%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +178%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +246%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$17 +166%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +132%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$14 +273%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $4 −$3 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $5 10h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $27 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 33h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 33h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $5 33h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 47h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 47h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $5 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records