Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:18:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd628…a698
sports · 1417 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$87 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$880
Realized−$67
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses1165 / 225
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions26
Markets (closed)1390 / 1417
Avg bet$93
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 26 History 1390 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$45
14 days+$87
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? No 84¢ 81¢ $177 $171 −$6 (-3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $160 $153 −$7 (-4%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $131 $131 −$0 (-0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 94¢ 94¢ $131 $131 −$0 (-0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 81¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 96¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 91¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 90¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 75¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 87¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $260 +$8 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $50 +$2 +3%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $135 +$10 +7%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 11 $149 +$5 +3%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $5 +$1 +13%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $55 +$2 +4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $55 +$13 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Jun 11 $210 +$9 +4%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $76 +$4 +6%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $28 +$3 +10%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $80 +$2 +3%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $50 +$3 +5%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $25 +$2 +6%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $15 +$3 +20%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $53 +$7 +14%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $25 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 09 $150 +$1 +0%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $25 +$1 +3%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $25 $0 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $19 +$2 +10%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 08 $172 −$21 -12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $22 +$3 +15%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $22 +$1 +3%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $46 +$1 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $22 $0 +2%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $23 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 +$3 +13%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $10 +$1 +11%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $37 +$3 +7%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 06 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 06 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 06 $211 −$47 -22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 06 $396 −$32 -8%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 06 $15 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 44% −$1,037
sports 23% +$767
world 20% +$472
weather 10% −$152
finance 2% +$94
politics 1% −$170
crypto 1% −$51
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% −$19
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $130 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $131 3h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $131 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $50 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $145 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $135 8h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 93¢ $135 8h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $7 9h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 98¢ $13 12h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $55 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 86¢ $68 13h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $5 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 16h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 AND Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4 BUY 87¢ $6 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $5 17h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $135 27h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 27h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $125 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $25 28h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $11 28h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $16 28h
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $220 28h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 29h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $28 35h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 97¢ $25 35h
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 89¢ $53 35h
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $51 35h
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? SELL No 88¢ $27 35h
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 84¢ $50 35h
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $25 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +5.5% -4.5% 88% 23% -8.4%
≤30d 246 -1.0% -10.4% 89% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 1063 -0.2% -9.7% 85% 20% -9.3%
all 1390 +0.9% -8.7% 84% 19% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 19% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 10% -18.2%
15% -25.4% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $879.51 · official $879.88 (match) · 3500 history records