Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd623…4467 crypto 468 markets active 21h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,284 (+18%) realized +$1,284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%239W / 229L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days+$98
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -6.3% -15.2% 49% 48% +2.0%
≤30d 312 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 49% +3.1%
≤90d 312 -3.9% -13.0% 51% 49% +3.1%
all 468 -2.4% -11.7% 51% 50% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 50% +7.2%
10% -20.2% 50% -3.1%
15% -27.9% 50% -12.4%
20% -35.0% 49% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses239 / 229
Open positions0
Markets (closed)468 / 468
History coverage191d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 468 Trades
no open positions (219 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$7 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$32 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$7 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $19 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 781 history records