Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:05:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D6
0xd622…0cf9
other · 64 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$41 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$41 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$36
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage601d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 2 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $9 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $9 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 05 $8 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $24 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $74 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $16 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $9 +$10 +101%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 12 $60 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $65 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $61 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $130 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? May 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $63 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $128 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $66 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $13 +$6 +48%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $11 +$8 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 +$9 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $18 +$2 +10%
Jets vs. Stars Apr 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $50 +$1 +1%
Magic vs. Heat Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Kings vs. Flames Mar 26 $24 +$31 +133%
Lightning vs. Kraken Mar 24 $23 +$13 +59%
Spurs vs. Clippers Mar 17 $20 +$5 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $25 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$13
politics 10% −$7
other 7% −$31
economics 1% $0
sports 1% +$10
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 51m
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 9h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 42h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 46h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $9 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $12 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 16d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 16d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 18d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $9 23d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 25d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 26d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $8 26d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 26d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 32d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 32d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 +7.7% -2.5% 23% 8% -6.9%
≤90d 47 -1.0% -10.5% 26% 15% -10.4%
all 62 -1.3% -10.7% 24% 11% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 11% -9.7%
10% -19.2% 11% -18.4%
15% -27.0% 10% -26.3%
20% -34.2% 8% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.14 · official $36.14 (match) · 256 history records