Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd621…11ef other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$29
sports 11% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -2.7% -11.9% 75% 0% -16.7%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 8% -9.5%
all 12 -0.2% -9.7% 58% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 8% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 8% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage56d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $37 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $140 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $9 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $213 −$35 -17%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 13 $77 +$29 +38%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 May 13 $2 −$1 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $72 +$5 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $70 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $72 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $71 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $9 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $9 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $69 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $69 10d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $71 23d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 24d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $99 24d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 24d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 24d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 44¢ $1 44d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 69¢ $2 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 SELL Over 74¢ $1 44d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 72¢ $77 44d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $58 46d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $13 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 46d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $71 46d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $71 46d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 46d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.99 · official $65.00 (match) · 38 history records