Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd61f…608d crypto 2375 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$323 (-24%) realized −$352 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%94W / 2744L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day104.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$52
14 days+$52
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$56
other 6% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-67.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 473 -98.5% -98.6% 1% 1% +1.6%
≤30d 489 -92.1% -92.8% 2% 2% -12.8%
≤90d 2838 -64.1% -67.5% 3% 3% -18.7%
all 2838 -64.1% -67.5% 3% 3% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -67.5% 3% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here -70.6% 3% -26.5%
15% -73.4% 3% -33.6%
20% -76.0% 3% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -64% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×23.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$352
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses94 / 2744
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2838 / 2375
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day104.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2838 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $90 $119 +$29 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $92 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $41 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $22 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $12 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $31 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $21 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $12 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 26d
XRP Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 26d
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $0 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.40 · official $119.40 (match) · 3500 history records