Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:38:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd61d…fd75 crypto 209 markets active 5d ago coverage 42d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,141 (-59%) realized −$5,141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate38%79W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day74.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$901
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -4.4% -13.5% 41% 17% -13.4%
≤30d 103 -5.3% -14.4% 40% 17% -13.9%
≤90d 209 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 22% -19.3%
all 209 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 22% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 22% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 15% -27.1%
15% -27.6% 11% -34.1%
20% -34.7% 6% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
14.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses79 / 130
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day74.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $57 −$47 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $22 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $47 −$17 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $40 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $61 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $24 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $33 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $42 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $55 −$6 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$10 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $45 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $36 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $22 −$5 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records