Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd61b…10d7 other 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$741 (-6%) realized −$946 · open +$205
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate56%74W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$24
14 days+$24
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$656
other 29% +$216
crypto 15% −$62
finance 7% −$4
world 5% −$4
politics 3% −$23
tech 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.3% -3.9% 78% 11% -3.7%
≤30d 54 -0.1% -9.6% 57% 13% -10.6%
≤90d 121 -12.0% -20.4% 51% 15% -19.3%
all 133 -8.2% -16.9% 56% 18% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 18% -15.3%
10% -24.9% 14% -23.4%
15% -32.1% 12% -30.8%
20% -38.8% 7% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$40 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized−$946
Unrealized+$205
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses74 / 59
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage149d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $455 $680 +$225 (+49%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 34¢ $54 $34 −$20 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $53 +$1 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$19 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 03 $108 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 03 $87 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 03 $54 −$23 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 03 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 03 $49 −$32 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $5 $0 -9%
Will Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $135 +$20 +14%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $22 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +2%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $221 +$31 +14%
Shimizu S-Pulse vs. Yokohama F·Marinos: O/U 2.5 May 31 $179 $0 +0%
Fagiano Okayama vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 1.5 May 31 $151 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 31 $15 −$6 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 31 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 31 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 31 $91 $0 -0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $246 −$18 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 30 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 30 $19 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 30 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 30 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 30 $12 −$9 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 30 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 24 $56 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will FC Dallas win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $49 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 24 $40 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 24 $54 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 24 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 20 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $85 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $69 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 20 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,300 in May? May 20 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,650 in May? May 20 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 52m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $203 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $259 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $17 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $19 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $41 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $15 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.50 · official $715.00 (match) · 645 history records