Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:25:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D6 0xd619…fcf3 sports 228 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$281 (-1%) realized −$286 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%95W / 128L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,087
7 days+$226
14 days+$226
30 days+$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$180
other 39% −$21
weather 2% +$68
culture 1% −$250
crypto 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.4% -18.1% 25% 25% -7.2%
≤30d 32 -9.4% -18.1% 25% 25% -7.2%
≤90d 32 -9.4% -18.1% 25% 25% -7.2%
all 223 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 43% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 43% -11.4%
10% -18.0% 41% -19.8%
15% -25.9% 38% -27.6%
20% -33.1% 35% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$75 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$1,209
Realized−$286
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses95 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions5
Markets (closed)223 / 228
History coverage217d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $560 $442 −$118 (-21%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 37¢ $229 $409 +$180 (+79%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 20¢ 22¢ $220 $246 +$26 (+12%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 9¢ $131 $96 −$35 (-26%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $64 $16 −$47 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $203 +$897 +442%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $536 +$564 +105%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $259 −$253 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $236 −$231 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $679 +$462 +68%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $102 −$99 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $203 −$198 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $679 +$421 +62%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $203 −$198 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $147 −$143 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 24 $135 +$965 +712%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $831 −$825 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $57 −$55 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $569 +$531 +93%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $169 −$165 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $79 −$77 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $124 −$83 -67%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $259 −$130 -50%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $381 +$719 +188%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $248 +$852 +344%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $270 −$264 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $192 −$187 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $613 −$605 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $113 −$110 -97%
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $55 −$18 -33%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Dec 30 $55 −$5 -8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 30 $55 −$5 -9%
Spread: Warriors (-5.5) Dec 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or higher on December 29 Dec 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 29 $102 −$14 -13%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) Dec 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 December 22-28? Dec 29 $62 −$62 -100%
Pistons vs. Clippers: O/U 223.5 Dec 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Warriors vs. Raptors: O/U 225.5 Dec 29 $51 +$51 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on December 28? Dec 28 $12 −$9 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on December 28? Dec 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Rockets Dec 28 $51 +$30 +59%
Spread: Timberwolves (-10.5) Dec 28 $55 +$49 +89%
Nuggets vs. Magic Dec 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on December 27? Dec 27 $1 +$36 +2762%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or higher on December 27? Dec 27 $55 +$37 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $568 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $225 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $66 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $234 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $134 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $536 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $536 20h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $203 20h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $292 20h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $236 20h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $259 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $679 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $102 23h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $180 23h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $203 23h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 8¢ $90 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $679 25h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 13¢ $147 26h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $203 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $831 2d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $135 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $57 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $124 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $569 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $259 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $169 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $79 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $24 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 4¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,208.90 · official $1,221.00 (match) · 561 history records