Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:29:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd616…55aa sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,719 (-43%) realized −$3,478 · open −$241
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,231per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days−$3,486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$3,596
other 19% −$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +54.6% +39.9% 100% 100% +39.9%
≤30d 5 -34.4% -40.7% 40% 40% -53.8%
≤90d 5 -34.4% -40.7% 40% 40% -53.8%
all 5 -34.4% -40.7% 40% 40% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 40% -53.8%
10% -46.4% 40% -58.2%
15% -51.5% 40% -62.3%
20% -56.3% 40% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$757 vs −$1,667 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$1,159
Realized−$3,478
Unrealized−$241
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage29d
Avg bet$1,231
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1,000 $762 −$238 (-24%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $202 +$110 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $3,030 −$3,000 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $1,917 +$1,404 +73%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 27 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 10d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $3,030 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $1,917 28d
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $1,016 28d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 28d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,158.77 · official $1,158.83 (match) · 38 history records