Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:54:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D6 0xd614…0fc0 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5,280 (+22%) realized +$5,385 · open −$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%33W / 29L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$335per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$210est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$1,597now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days−$1,774
14 days−$1,457
30 days+$5,301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$7,452
other 34% −$2,246
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +13.7% +2.9% 50% 50% -32.1%
≤30d 62 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 52% +17.0%
≤90d 62 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 52% +17.0%
all 62 +3.3% -6.5% 53% 52% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 52% +17.0%
10% -15.5% 52% +5.8%
15% -23.7% 40% -4.4%
20% -31.1% 34% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$306 vs −$165 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1,597
Realized+$5,385
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses33 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$210
Open positions7
Markets (closed)62 / 72
History coverage24d
Avg bet$335
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $662 $655 −$7 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $500 $573 +$73 (+15%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $500 $347 −$153 (-31%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-93%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $253 +$157 +62%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will England win on 202 Jun 18 $101 +$124 +123%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $242 −$237 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $33 +$19 +57%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$150 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $121 +$31 +26%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $306 +$551 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,223 −$571 -26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $138 +$185 +134%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $200 +$213 +107%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-1 be the exact series outcome? Jun 14 $51 +$355 +692%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $102 +$176 +172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $149 +$40 +27%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 07 $50 +$57 +114%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $101 +$31 +31%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Portugal vs. Chile: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $102 +$176 +172%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $61 +$37 +61%
ITF Monastir: Maria Oliver Sanchez vs Vlada Mincheva Jun 05 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-2 be the exact series outcome? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-3 be the exact series outcome? Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $101 +$65 +65%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $51 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $57 −$56 -99%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 04 $204 +$208 +102%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $101 +$33 +32%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 04 $84 +$54 +65%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 04 $152 +$122 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $153 −$34 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to BUY 55¢ $203 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 5¢ $206 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $165 8h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $253 8h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 28¢ $242 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners AND Will England win on 202 BUY 44¢ $101 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 66¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $151 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $33 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 67¢ $101 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $121 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $306 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 52¢ $1,606 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $303 4d
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $201 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,596.81 · official $1,996.81 · 125 history records