Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D6 0xd614…1fa3 crypto 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 71d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,839 (+14%) realized +$25,958 · open −$119
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate69%184W / 82L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$2,056est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$595
crypto 43% −$2,165
world 1% +$129
other 1% −$173
culture 0% −$266
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -60.2% -64.0% 0% 0% -62.7%
≤30d 20 -24.9% -32.1% 45% 40% -10.7%
≤90d 266 +3.7% -6.2% 69% 27% -10.9%
all 266 +3.7% -6.2% 69% 27% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 27% -10.9%
10% -15.1% 18% -19.5%
15% ← realistic here -23.3% 15% -27.3%
20% -30.9% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$837) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$246 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$1,688
Realized+$25,958
Unrealized−$119
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses184 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$2,056
Open positions8
Markets (closed)266 / 273
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$685
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $557 $551 −$6 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 79¢ 95¢ $425 $509 +$85 (+20%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 16¢ $32 $156 +$124 (+389%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $145 −$35 (-19%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $135 −$45 (-25%)
Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? No 54¢ 78¢ $57 $81 +$25 (+44%)
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ 38¢ $58 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes $318 $52 −$266 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $244 −$124 -51%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $180 −$125 -70%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jason Jung Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lisa Pigato Jun 08 $68 −$67 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $521 +$222 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $78 −$76 -99%
ITF Monastir: Toufik Sahtali vs Yassine Dlimi May 31 $49 −$48 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $432 +$242 +56%
Will Sumudaerji win by KO or TKO? May 30 $35 −$17 -49%
Will Alex Perez win by KO or TKO? May 30 $711 −$159 -22%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $962 −$474 -49%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $45 +$16 +36%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 30 $9 $0 +2%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $15 +$4 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Ding Meng vs. Jose Henrique (Welterweight, Prelims) May 30 $144 +$30 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 30 $2 +$3 +124%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 30 $206 +$59 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 30 $1,356 +$520 +38%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 19 $195 +$305 +156%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $358 −$259 -72%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $30 +$8 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $276 −$10 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $55 −$54 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,980 −$240 -8%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $57 +$34 +59%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $2,691 −$891 -33%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,962 +$196 +10%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $1,452 +$128 +9%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $837 −$837 -100%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $172 −$171 -99%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $1,601 +$106 +7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $1,376 +$79 +6%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner May 07 $344 +$56 +16%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 07 $383 −$378 -99%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 07 $143 −$142 -99%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $173 +$132 +76%
LoL: Shifters vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $340 +$152 +45%
LoL: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 04 $719 −$6 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 04 $480 −$391 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 04 $1,878 −$193 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 6? May 04 $360 −$105 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 04 $350 −$100 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 04 $145 +$4 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner May 04 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 04 $1,071 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET May 04 $92 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 04 $552 +$23 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 03 $330 +$120 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 30¢ $113 40m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 30¢ $4 40m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Andre Lima 30¢ $3 40m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 61¢ $138 50m
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 61¢ $106 50m
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 39¢ $60 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 19¢ $53 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Allan Nascimento 10¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $64 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $76 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $6 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $28 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $2 1h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 60¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $180 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 72¢ $25 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $343 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 80¢ $20 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $120 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,687.92 · official $1,687.92 (match) · 3500 history records