Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:21:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd613…1f7b sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate52%22W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$1
sports 37% −$1
other 8% $0
culture 8% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% −$6
weather 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 26 -3.1% -12.3% 69% 8% -9.8%
all 42 -1.9% -11.3% 52% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -9.6%
10% -19.8% 5% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 5% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses22 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage101d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 03 $6 $0 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get 48 million or more views on day 2? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 25°F or below on May 9? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 08 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 5? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8PM ET Apr 09 $7 $0 +1%
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 09 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2AM ET Apr 08 $13 $0 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? Apr 08 $195 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 08 $179 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Apr 07 $206 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Apr 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $175 $0 -0%
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside Apr 07 $211 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $372 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 07 $185 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 02 $7 +$4 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 02 $7 −$4 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 02 $6 −$3 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 02 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Apr 02 $5 +$3 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 02 $6 −$3 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10PM ET Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Rashida Tlaib win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Mar 10 $373 −$2 -0%
Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary electi Mar 10 $303 $0 -0%
Will Pascal Siakam lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA seaso Mar 10 $325 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Mar 10 $324 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Mar 09 $267 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Mar 09 $363 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $239 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Mercuri advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Mar 09 $343 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $359 $0 -0%
Will Walter Clayton Jr. win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 09 $311 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential Mar 09 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 08 $366 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 08 $321 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Mar 08 $174 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $455 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 98¢ $6 19d
Will MrBeast's next video get 48 million or more views on day 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 35d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 25°F or below on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 38d
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Athletics 100¢ $8 38d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 100¢ $9 38d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on May 5? BUY No 100¢ $9 41d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 100¢ $9 46d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 67d
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Chicago Cubs 97¢ $15 67d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 67d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL No 99¢ $15 67d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? SELL No 99¢ $179 67d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $179 67d
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $179 67d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $13 67d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL No 6¢ $13 68d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 94¢ $17 68d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 94¢ $166 68d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 94¢ $10 68d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $137 68d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $37 68d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 68d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $78 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $17 68d
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside SELL No 99¢ $211 68d
Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian preside BUY No 99¢ $211 68d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $185 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.20 · official $5.20 (match) · 143 history records