Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd612…8cd0 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (132 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$616 (+13%) realized +$616 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%26W / 32L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day132.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$378
tech 7% +$43
other 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (132 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 +10.6% +0.0% 45% 26% -1.2%
≤30d 58 +10.6% +0.0% 45% 26% -1.2%
≤90d 58 +10.6% +0.0% 45% 26% -1.2%
all 58 +10.6% +0.0% 45% 26% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover132.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.0% 26% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 22% -10.6%
15% -18.3% 16% -19.3%
20% -26.3% 12% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$12 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$616
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses26 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage3d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day132.1
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $272 −$12 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $113 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $27 −$17 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $556 −$60 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $53 −$42 -79%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $153 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $413 +$22 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$11 -43%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$24 +2400%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $273 +$244 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $249 +$53 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$52 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $279 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $110 +$73 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $234 +$77 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $210 −$4 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 13 $546 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 13 $46 +$14 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $91 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $17 +$19 +112%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $37 +$11 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$6 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $78 +$48 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$5 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $0 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $94 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $51 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $8 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 52m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 503 history records