Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd610…5797 crypto 1525 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$448 (+3%) realized +$448 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate85%1295W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$66
14 days+$71
30 days−$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$432
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 421 +2.3% -7.5% 89% 38% -7.5%
≤30d 1406 +0.0% -9.5% 85% 54% -10.6%
≤90d 1525 -0.5% -10.0% 85% 52% -12.0%
all 1525 -0.5% -10.0% 85% 52% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 52% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 7% -20.4%
15% -26.4% 2% -28.1%
20% -33.7% 1% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$448
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1295 / 230
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1525 / 1525
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1525 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Yo FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 0¢ 40¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$3 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.58 · official $21.35 (match) · 3500 history records