Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd60f…f595 world 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$40 (-8%) realized −$38 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate46%48W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$7
sports 10% −$13
politics 9% −$6
other 6% −$3
weather 6% −$22
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-18.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 0% -27.0%
≤30d 14 -11.9% -20.2% 43% 7% -24.3%
≤90d 94 -10.6% -19.1% 45% 17% -20.9%
all 105 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 18% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.2% 18% -17.4%
10% -26.1% 7% -25.3%
15% -33.2% 2% -32.5%
20% -39.8% 2% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses48 / 57
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)105 / 117
History coverage102d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 20¢ 78¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+292%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 61¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Venezuela become 51st state? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -41%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $1 $0 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +22%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 31 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? May 22 $2 −$1 -64%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 20 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $3 $0 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in May? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $8 +$1 +9%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 11 $3 −$2 -66%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $1 $0 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $9 −$2 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $1 $0 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 8, 2026? May 09 $2 $0 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $8 +$1 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 41°F or below on May 7 May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May 2026? May 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 5? May 07 $16 −$15 -93%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 06 $9 −$7 -84%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 06 $1 $0 -42%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 06 $4 +$1 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -6%
Will Israel or the US target Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center nuclear May 05 $1 −$1 -74%
Greg Bovino fired/resigns by March 31? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May May 05 $9 −$2 -26%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $2 −$1 -56%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $2 −$1 -55%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $1 $0 -13%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 21 $3 −$1 -20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $10 $0 -3%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 12 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $4 +$1 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $21 −$7 -35%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $4 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $0 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 3m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 99¢ $0 18m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $0 40m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 98¢ $0 40m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 97¢ $0 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 97¢ $0 42m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 46m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 46m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $0 47m
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $0 58m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 79¢ $0 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $0 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $0 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 5h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $0 5h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $2 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $2 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 83¢ $2 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.75 · official $11.17 (match) · 1092 history records