Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:52:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd60f…ba25 other 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$614 (-3%) realized −$597 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%79W / 192L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$153now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$1
14 days−$134
30 days−$718
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$662
other 6% +$106
sports 3% −$206
world 0% +$18
economics 0% $0
politics 0% −$11
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +24.3% +12.5% 34% 27% -9.6%
≤30d 267 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 19% -12.4%
≤90d 267 -6.7% -15.6% 29% 19% -12.4%
all 271 -7.1% -15.9% 29% 18% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 18% -12.5%
10% -24.0% 16% -20.9%
15% -31.3% 14% -28.5%
20% -38.0% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$153
Realized−$597
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses79 / 192
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions15
Markets (closed)271 / 297
History coverage214d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 271 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Germany 20¢ 19¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Athletics 27¢ 44¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+65%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ 46¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Philadelphia Phillies 24¢ 23¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Houston Astros 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Washington Nationals 20¢ 19¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Chicago Cubs 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) New York Mets 26¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) New York Yankees 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) San Francisco Giants 21¢ 16¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Los Angeles Angels 29¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) IR Iran 10¢ 1¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Houston Astros 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 +$12 +238%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $396 $0 +0%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $184 −$181 -98%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$40 +784%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 −$9 -16%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$9 +172%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 +$9 +86%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +39%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $3 $0 -10%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 29¢ $5 1m
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) BUY Houston Astros 21¢ $5 3m
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 20¢ $5 15m
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 21¢ $5 17m
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY New York Mets 26¢ $5 19m
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY New York Yankees 21¢ $5 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) BUY Washington Nationals 20¢ $5 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 24¢ $5 1h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 27¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 99¢ $396 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $397 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $396 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $102 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $82 15h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 20¢ $102 15h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) BUY San Diego Padres 24¢ $5 15h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 100¢ $45 22h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 43¢ $5 23h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 29¢ $5 23h
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 29¢ $5 23h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) BUY Miami Marlins 18¢ $5 24h
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 26¢ $5 24h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 29¢ $5 24h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $5 24h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 16¢ $10 24h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 20¢ $5 27h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 10¢ $5 27h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 19¢ $5 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 27h
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 11¢ $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.89 · official $309.89 · 715 history records