Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd60e…b167 politics 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate34%12W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% $0
politics 32% −$1
other 14% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 5% $0
weather 5% −$1
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 0% -9.4%
all 35 -1.5% -10.9% 34% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -19.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses12 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage317d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $32 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $63 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $27 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 16 $5 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 245–259 times August 8–August 15? Aug 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 73-74°F on August 8? Aug 10 $45 $0 +1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 09 $1 $0 +19%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 07 $50 −$1 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 06 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 05 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05–1.10ºC in July 2025? Aug 05 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 04 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $32 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $19 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $19 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $12 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $26 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $17 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $35 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $35 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $35 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $18 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 94¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.32 · official $31.32 (match) · 111 history records