Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

D6 0xd60c…06a1 crypto 23 markets active 5d ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$175 (-39%) realized −$175 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR35%break-even

Win rate43%10W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$19per market

Trades / day27.7pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +35%

net ROI/market (all)-31.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	-24.2%	-31.5%	43%	35%	-47.8%
≤30d	23	-24.2%	-31.5%	43%	35%	-47.8%
≤90d	23	-24.2%	-31.5%	43%	35%	-47.8%
all	23	-24.2%	-31.5%	43%	35%	-47.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover27.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-31.5%	35%	-47.8%
10% ← realistic here	-38.0%	26%	-52.8%
15%	-44.0%	17%	-57.4%
20%	-49.5%	17%	-61.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +5% → late -51% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.16 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$175

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses10 / 13

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)23 / 23

History coverage2d

Avg bet$19

Trades / day27.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 23 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Jun 12	$4	−$1	-29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 12	$4	$0	-0%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 12	$2	−$2	-100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	Jun 12	$13	−$13	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 11	$17	+$12	+73%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 11	$12	+$4	+29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 10	$2	−$2	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Jun 10	$2	$0	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Jun 10	$15	−$15	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 10	$51	−$51	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Jun 10	$2	+$2	+107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 10	$3	−$3	-83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 10	$3	+$2	+51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 10	$105	−$105	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 10	$5	+$3	+52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 10	$15	−$1	-6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Jun 10	$10	+$3	+32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Jun 10	$50	+$7	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Jun 10	$77	−$20	-25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Jun 10	$5	$0	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 10	$35	+$2	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$4	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$2	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	1¢	$5	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	1¢	$5	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	55¢	$5	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	31¢	$8	5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$2	5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	57¢	$17	5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	SELL Yes	82¢	$16	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$0	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	83¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$4	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	BUY Down	46¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Down	9¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$3	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	68¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	SELL Down	80¢	$8	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$5	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	SELL Up	63¢	$14	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$5	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records