Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:50:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D6 0xd60c…064b crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$377 (+11%) realized +$377 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate74%20W / 7L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 74% 56% -8.8%
≤30d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 74% 56% -8.8%
≤90d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 74% 56% -8.8%
all 27 +3.2% -6.6% 74% 56% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 56% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 26% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 11% -25.5%
20% -31.2% 4% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$78 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses20 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $49 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $166 −$124 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $306 −$157 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $204 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $204 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $208 +$137 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $155 +$67 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $92 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 25 $57 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $101 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $103 +$26 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$62 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $176 −$96 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $206 +$65 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $203 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $147 +$33 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 24 $122 +$26 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $87 +$35 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 24 $84 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $166 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $149 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $306 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $204 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $204 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $107 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $208 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $155 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $92 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $57 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $103 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $102 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $84 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $42 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $104 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $80 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $176 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $206 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $203 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $103 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $147 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $122 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $87 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records