Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D6 0xd60a…1bcd world 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 500d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$30 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate74%31W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1,676now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$139
7 days+$200
14 days+$173
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$266
other 28% +$164
politics 11% −$28
crypto 6% −$14
finance 5% +$1
sports 4% +$126
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +86.1% +68.4% 100% 100% +45.7%
≤30d 22 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 32% -8.4%
≤90d 33 +2.3% -7.4% 82% 45% -6.8%
all 42 -6.0% -15.0% 74% 43% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 43% -10.5%
10% -23.1% 19% -19.0%
15% -30.6% 14% -26.8%
20% -37.4% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$61 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

500d coverage
Net worth$1,676
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses31 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions22
Markets (closed)42 / 64
History coverage500d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 75¢ 86¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $100 $104 +$4 (+4%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 87¢ 94¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+9%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 99¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 95¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 45¢ 46¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $278 +$139 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $50 +$61 +122%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$12 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? Jun 10 $150 $0 +0%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $50 +$2 +3%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 +$24 +49%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +2%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$82 +163%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? Jun 01 $75 +$2 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $116 +$100 +86%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $100 +$16 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? May 19 $30 +$2 +6%
US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025? May 19 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? May 19 $50 +$6 +12%
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025? May 19 $50 +$6 +12%
US national Solana reserve in 2025? May 19 $50 +$9 +18%
Macron out in 2025? May 19 $50 +$12 +24%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? May 19 $71 +$14 +19%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? May 19 $100 +$12 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? May 19 $100 +$14 +14%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? May 19 $100 +$22 +22%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the next Pope be from Africa? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 09 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? May 07 $71 −$19 -27%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2025? May 07 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? May 07 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? Mar 08 $50 +$4 +9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Feb 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Feb 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $76 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $278 43h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $200 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 15d
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 15d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 325M by June 5? BUY No 99¢ $100 15d
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 300M by June 5? BUY No 100¢ $150 15d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $100 15d
JD Vance out as VP by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 15d
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 15d
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? BUY No 45¢ $50 15d
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 15d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $50 15d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $50 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $100 15d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 53¢ $116 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $100 28d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $100 28d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $100 28d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $100 28d
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $100 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $50 28d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $49 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $100 28d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $49 28d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $75 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,676.43 · official $1,676.43 (match) · 134 history records