Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D6 0xd607…6086 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 537d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$75 (+2%) realized +$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$73
politics 23% −$1
other 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 6 +54.0% +39.3% 83% 83% +42.2%
all 28 +20.5% +9.0% 46% 29% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 29% -7.7%
10% -1.4% 29% -16.5%
15% -11.0% 25% -24.6%
20% -19.7% 25% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 63% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +41% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.84 per $1 lost it wins $3.84
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

537d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)28 / 30
History coverage537d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage Bebop 52¢ 52¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 98¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $22 +$31 +140%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 11 $27 +$31 +114%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 15 $26 +$17 +65%
Nuggets vs. Suns Apr 02 $17 +$9 +52%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 24 $8 +$5 +54%
76ers vs. Pacers Mar 10 $4 +$1 +25%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $3 +$4 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 18 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $226 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 29 $227 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 29 $3 $0 -5%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Sep 30 $3 $0 -1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 03 $3 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 23 $3 $0 +2%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? Jun 30 $3 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win La Liga? Jan 15 $488 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 15 $489 $0 -0%
Will Valencia CF win La Liga? Jan 15 $470 $0 -0%
Will Girona FC win La Liga? Jan 15 $440 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $231 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 52¢ $18 1h
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs BUY TLN Pirates 41¢ $22 26d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage BUY Gentle Mates 41¢ $22 35d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 46¢ $27 61d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY DN SOOPers 60¢ $26 74d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 66¢ $17 83d
Grizzlies vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 65¢ $8 97d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 80¢ $4 110d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 41¢ $3 147d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 1, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 195d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $215 229d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 229d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 229d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 229d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 229d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $226 229d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $226 229d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 229d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 94¢ $3 229d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $3 258d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen SELL No 99¢ $3 258d
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen BUY No 99¢ $3 285d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL No 99¢ $3 285d
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? BUY No 99¢ $3 298d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $3 298d
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 99¢ $3 326d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? SELL No 100¢ $3 326d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on July 31? BUY No 98¢ $3 337d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 99¢ $3 390d
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in BUY No 100¢ $3 411d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.41 · official $28.41 (match) · 244 history records