trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +71.7% | +55.3% | 100% | 100% | +38.1% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 60% | 60% | -29.1% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -43.5% | -48.8% | 38% | 38% | -35.6% |
| all | 26 | -48.1% | -53.1% | 35% | 35% | -44.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -53.1% | 35% | -44.3% |
| 10% | -57.6% | 23% | -49.7% |
| 15% | -61.7% | 23% | -54.5% |
| 20% | -65.4% | 12% | -59.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $20 | +$30 | +150% |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 22 | $402 | +$196 | +49% |
| Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Jun 22 | $10 | +$2 | +16% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $234 | −$230 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 28 | $184 | −$180 | -98% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 23 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | May 22 | $33 | +$4 | +13% |
| Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? | May 11 | $21 | +$7 | +35% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | May 02 | $30 | +$4 | +13% |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | May 01 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Apr 28 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Starmer out by May 15, 2026? | Apr 27 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Starmer out by April 30, 2026? | Apr 27 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Apr 27 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June | Apr 25 | $20 | +$7 | +37% |
| Trump drops Powell investigation before Warsh is confirmed? | Apr 25 | $20 | +$14 | +68% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? | Apr 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20 | Apr 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| French election called by June 30, 2026? | Apr 22 | $38 | −$35 | -94% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | Apr 22 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 16 | $148 | −$83 | -56% |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 16 | $132 | −$132 | -100% |
| Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? | Jan 15 | $128 | −$128 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 13 | $100 | +$61 | +61% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |