Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd605…dcc6 other 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 236L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$14
14 days−$27
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$43
sports 23% −$27
politics 8% −$6
crypto 7% −$5
economics 6% −$2
culture 5% −$5
world 4% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 252 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 236
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)252 / 253
History coverage134d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $226 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $210 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $374 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $126 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $61 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $187 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $323 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $474 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $333 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $405 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $903 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $145 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $904 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $201 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $735 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $382 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $67 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $608 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $468 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 03 $223 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $160 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $262 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 01 $123 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 3h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 5h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 7h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 8h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 9h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 12h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 13h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 15h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 17h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 21h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 22h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 27h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 29h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 30h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 31h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 33h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $61 37h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $61 39h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 46h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.64 · official $59.64 (match) · 1381 history records