Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:14:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D6 0xd602…0731 crypto 1746 markets active 0h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$480 (-2%) realized −$480 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate91%1598W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day20.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$22
14 days−$348
30 days−$348
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$448
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -33.1% -39.5% 60% 10% -25.1%
≤30d 219 -4.5% -13.6% 88% 22% -12.5%
≤90d 1749 -0.8% -10.2% 91% 33% -11.1%
all 1749 -0.8% -10.2% 91% 33% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 33% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 2% -19.6%
15% -26.7% 1% -27.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$16 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$480
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1598 / 151
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1749 / 1746
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1749 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 08 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $50 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 07 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $50 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $20 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.24 · official $23.14 (match) · 3500 history records