Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:26:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D6 0xd600…4b7e world 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$3
other 25% −$1
politics 14% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 10% $0
tech 3% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 21 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.2%
all 44 +0.1% -9.4% 36% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage318d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $35 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $38 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $35 +$2 +6%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $33 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $36 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $142 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 25 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 16 $1 $0 -11%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $11 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 11 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 290–304 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 11 $66 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $340 in August? Aug 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 10 $76 $0 -1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 08 $64 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be 44.5–44.9% on August 8? Aug 08 $8 $0 +1%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 07 $72 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 06 $79 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 06 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $35 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $25 23h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 26h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $10 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $10 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $39 34h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $39 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 45h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $35 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $11 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $23 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $37 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $3 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 88¢ $31 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $34 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $38 9d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $38 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 55¢ $37 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $35 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records