trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Jun 12 | $35 | +$153 | +439% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | Jun 12 | $131 | −$134 | -102% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $99 | −$49 | -50% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $163 | −$1 | -0% |
| Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? | Jun 12 | $352 | −$305 | -87% |
| Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026? | Jun 12 | $87 | −$88 | -101% |
| Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Jun 12 | $375 | +$111 | +30% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $3 | +$16 | +473% |
| Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $50 | −$18 | -36% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $107 | −$88 | -82% |
| Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $98 | −$120 | -123% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 12 | $236 | −$189 | -80% |
| Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $107 | −$109 | -101% |
| Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $140 | −$137 | -98% |
| Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 12 | $223 | −$203 | -91% |
| Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $110 | −$117 | -106% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 12 | $81 | −$350 | -434% |
| GTA VI released before June 2026? | Jun 12 | $51 | +$18 | +35% |
| Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $102 | −$114 | -112% |
| Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Jun 12 | $176 | −$185 | -105% |
| Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 12 | $114 | −$129 | -113% |
| Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | Jun 12 | $37 | +$118 | +321% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 12 | $323 | +$14 | +4% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jun 12 | $91 | −$37 | -40% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 24 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 25% | 21% | -53.5% |
| ≤30d | 24 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 25% | 21% | -53.5% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 25% | 21% | -53.5% |
| all | 24 | -6.7% | -15.6% | 25% | 21% | -53.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -15.6% | 21% | -53.5% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -23.7% | 21% | -58.0% |
| 15% | -31.1% | 12% | -62.0% |
| 20% | -37.8% | 12% | -65.7% |