Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5ff…8450 sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,710 (-40%) realized −$8,710 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,053
7 days−$8,891
14 days−$8,863
30 days−$8,863
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$8,913
sports 3% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-23.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -19.0% -26.7% 29% 29% -33.6%
≤30d 33 +18.1% +6.9% 55% 42% -32.6%
≤90d 109 -15.4% -23.5% 26% 16% -33.2%
all 109 -15.4% -23.5% 26% 16% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.5% 16% -33.2%
10% -30.8% 12% -39.6%
15% -37.5% 11% -45.4%
20% -43.6% 8% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$115 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8,710
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 81
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage67d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $6,121 −$373 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11,428 −$7,686 -67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1,040 −$992 -95%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $2 $0 +18%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 20 $15 $0 -0%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 20 $25 −$5 -21%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce Jun 20 $5 −$1 -20%
Will PSV win on 2026-04-23? Jun 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Salford City FC win on 2026-04-23? Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Guangdong Southern Tigers vs. Beijing Ducks Jun 20 $2 +$3 +146%
Will Red Star FC win on 2026-04-24? Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Hurricanes vs. Senators Jun 20 $5 $0 +8%
Abidjan: Florent Bax vs Calvin Hemery Jun 20 $10 −$4 -41%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +20%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +21%
Madrid Open: Cameron Norrie vs Tomas Machac Jun 20 $10 −$4 -36%
Ducks vs. Oilers Jun 20 $20 +$3 +15%
Gwangju: Yuta Shimizu vs August Holmgren Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-06? Jun 20 $5 +$5 +106%
Will Houston Dynamo win on 2026-04-22? Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Abidjan: Gauthier Onclin vs Mert Alkaya Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-08? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +27%
Savannah: Kilian Feldbausch vs Clement Tabur Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Atlanta Dream vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 20 $5 +$5 +105%
Abidjan: Yanki Erel vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $5 +$7 +134%
AEK vs. BC Rytas Jun 20 $5 +$7 +146%
Gwangju: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 20 $5 +$9 +180%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces May 09 $5 −$2 -44%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $5 $0 -6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 $0 -3%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $5 −$1 -14%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 $0 -3%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 $0 -4%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos May 09 $5 $0 -8%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Doosan Bears May 09 $5 $0 -5%
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins May 09 $10 −$1 -6%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 08 $5 $0 -6%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds May 08 $5 $0 -5%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perri May 08 $6 −$2 -30%
Will Delfino Pescara 1936 win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $15 $0 -3%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-09? May 08 $5 $0 -4%
Santos: Joao Eduardo Schiessl vs Franco Roncadelli May 08 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Virtus Entella win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $5 $0 -2%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 29¢ $2,747 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 31¢ $3,062 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 46¢ $2,951 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 46¢ $3,048 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,945 10h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $2,046 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,011 18h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,000 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 15¢ $3,170 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $4,919 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 39¢ $5,140 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $243 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 12¢ $305 19h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 72¢ $29 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 84¢ $9 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 339 history records