Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D5 0xd5ff…adc6 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$12
other 30% +$1
world 19% +$7
tech 6% +$6
sports 4% −$2
weather 1% +$20
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 0% -6.6%
≤30d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 45% 0% -7.4%
≤90d 22 +0.6% -9.0% 41% 5% -9.7%
all 42 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 12% -8.5%
10% -12.9% 10% -17.3%
15% -21.3% 7% -25.3%
20% -29.0% 7% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage526d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $58 +$5 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $12 +$1 +6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $115 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $4 $0 +13%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 23 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $229 −$14 -6%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $101 +$6 +6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $84 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $16 −$2 -14%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $1 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 10 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $2 +$1 +35%
Will 'Zero Day: Limited Series' be the top global Netflix show this we Mar 17 $31 $0 +0%
U.S. Government funding lapse on March 15? Mar 16 $6 −$5 -94%
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday? Mar 15 $33 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 15? Mar 03 $15 +$20 +127%
UC Riverside vs. UC Davis Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Southampton win on 2025-02-15? Feb 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-15? Feb 13 $16 $0 -2%
Bucks vs. Timberwolves Feb 13 $3 +$4 +156%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? Feb 13 $3 +$5 +212%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 06 $10 $0 +3%
OG Shoots vs. Easy Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $42 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 79¢ $42 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $40 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $14 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $14 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 37¢ $12 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $12 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $21 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $12 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $32 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $13 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $11 7d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 34¢ $1 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $35 7d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $35 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.78 · official $41.78 (match) · 115 history records