Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D5 0xd5fb…6b9c crypto 887 markets active 4h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (109 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$189 (+1%) realized +$189 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate40%383W / 585L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day109.5pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$694
7 days−$338
14 days−$482
30 days−$537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$184
crypto 32% −$294
other 2% −$33
world 1% +$69
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (109 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -28.5% -35.3% 31% 13% -12.6%
≤30d 968 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 27% -11.6%
≤90d 968 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 27% -11.6%
all 968 -14.4% -22.6% 40% 27% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover109.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 27% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.0% 23% -20.1%
15% -36.7% 20% -27.8%
20% -42.9% 16% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses383 / 585
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)968 / 887
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day109.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 968 Trades
no open positions (306 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -3031%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$4 -1194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$11 -11465%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$5 -2314%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$6 -3770%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$9 -2505%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 17 $0 $0 -643%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -737%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 6AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$3 -1295%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 −$18 -8702%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $69 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $102 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 95¢ $9 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY No 93¢ $23 5h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $101 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 93¢ $49 8h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? SELL Yes 24¢ $89 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 75¢ $85 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 88¢ $100 8h
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? SELL No 96¢ $48 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Neither team to score first? BUY No 97¢ $100 8h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 SELL Over 39¢ $48 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $23 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $100 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $112 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 97¢ $19 10h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 92¢ $100 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $310 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $137 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $311 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 29¢ $52 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 21¢ $7 13h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 13h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY No 89¢ $27 13h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL No 78¢ $6 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $183 13h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY No 92¢ $17 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.22 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records