Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5fa…8d02 world 81 markets active 0h ago coverage 542d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% $0
politics 19% $0
other 16% $0
sports 8% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 66 +0.2% -9.4% 35% 2% -9.5%
all 79 -3.2% -12.4% 34% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 4% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 3% -18.5%
15% -28.4% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

542d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)79 / 81
History coverage542d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 65¢ 66¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 32¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $86 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $68 −$1 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $44 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $48 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $46 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $42 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $205 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $94 +$2 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $58 $0 -1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $40 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $84 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $28 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $92 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $46 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $27 −$7 -25%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $38 +$2 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $1 $0 +26%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $46 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $63 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $52 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $93 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $49 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $20 $0 +2%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $45 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $26 26m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $52 30m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $52 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 18h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $24 20h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $21 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $30 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $10 31h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $25 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $19 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $3 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $22 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 67¢ $25 43h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $7 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.22 · official $26.20 (match) · 377 history records