Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5fa…9148 crypto 128 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (186 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+1%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate74%94W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day186.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (186 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 29% -9.5%
≤30d 127 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 29% -9.5%
≤90d 127 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 29% -9.5%
all 127 -1.0% -10.4% 74% 29% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover186.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 29% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 13% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 5% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses94 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage1d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day186.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 93¢ 94¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$14 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$21 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$22 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $80 −$15 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $34 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $40 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $41 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $41 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $40 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.47 · official $83.05 · 282 history records