Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D5 0xd5f9…2691 other 17 markets active 5d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$135 (+21%) realized +$113 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$93
politics 15% +$25
economics 3% +$4
tech 3% −$11
finance 3% +$29
sports 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +45.7% +31.8% 100% 100% +31.8%
≤30d 6 -15.4% -23.5% 50% 50% -19.1%
≤90d 12 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% +11.6%
all 12 +17.7% +6.5% 50% 50% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.5% 50% +11.6%
10% -3.7% 50% +0.9%
15% -13.0% 33% -8.8%
20% -21.5% 17% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$21 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$113
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage68d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $20 $49 +$29 (+143%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $62 −$37 -60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 22 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $20 +$6 +28%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 21 $41 +$39 +94%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $21 +$112 +539%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tisza win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parl Apr 24 $100 +$25 +25%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $110 +$45 +41%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.86 · official $81.86 (match) · 27 history records