Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D5 0xd5f7…d315 crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 546d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%42W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$8
crypto 10% +$1
tech 2% +$1
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 -0.1% -9.6% 76% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

546d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses42 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage546d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? May 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in March? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $180 in February? Mar 03 $37 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? Feb 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $52 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Nov 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 04 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in June? Jul 04 $32 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 27 $5,990 −$6 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Tony Finau win The 2025 Masters? Apr 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Milroe be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 22 $36 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 20 $24 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Mar 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Mar 12 $33 $0 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $250 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.25 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $48 31d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $17 61d
Will Hyperliquid reach $56 in April? BUY No 100¢ $51 63d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will BNB reach $900 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 92d
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Solana reach $180 in February? BUY No 100¢ $37 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 151d
Will Solana dip to $50 in January? BUY No 100¢ $47 151d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 181d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $9 181d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $56 182d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $52 212d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $9 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 241d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? BUY No 100¢ $38 242d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $32 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $6 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $7 302d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $18 302d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $40 303d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $6 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $51 335d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.95 · official $67.95 (match) · 115 history records