Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5f4…7bf2 politics 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 181d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$1
sports 21% $0
tech 11% $0
crypto 11% $0
other 8% $0
world 8% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage181d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 30 $89 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 23 $89 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $271 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 30 $182 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $182 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $182 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $183 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $183 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Fe Feb 03 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $183 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 29 $176 $0 +0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 06 $177 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 04 $178 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 02 $176 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 100¢ $88 1h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 100¢ $89 13h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $89 2d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $89 6d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $89 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $89 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $89 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $89 13d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $89 14d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $89 27d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $89 30d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $89 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $89 39d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $89 43d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $89 43d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $89 45d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $89 46d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $89 47d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $89 47d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $182 91d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $182 92d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $182 98d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $182 99d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $182 104d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 104d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 104d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $6 104d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 104d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $10 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records