Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D5 0xd5f3…05e9 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% −$1
other 22% +$1
politics 7% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 56% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 9 -0.0% -9.6% 56% 0% -9.7%
all 25 +1.4% -8.2% 68% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 4% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage453d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $14 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $36 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Na Kyung-won be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 06 $2 $0 +10%
Will Alexander Isak be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Apr 20 $1 $0 +16%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Rangers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Apr 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 12 $8 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Giants draft Shedeur Sanders? Apr 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend? Apr 05 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 19h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $31 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $3 21d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $34 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $15 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23 21d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $37 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $36 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $5 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $4 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $1 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $18 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $15 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $16 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $18 25d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $10 362d
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? BUY No 99¢ $2 399d
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? BUY No 99¢ $1 415d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.54 (match) · 80 history records