Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5f2…042e sports 50 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$549 (-12%) realized −$549 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate50%25W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$350
other 5% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -17.5% -25.3% 50% 28% -21.3%
≤30d 50 -17.5% -25.3% 50% 28% -21.3%
≤90d 50 -17.5% -25.3% 50% 28% -21.3%
all 50 -17.5% -25.3% 50% 28% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 28% -21.3%
10% -32.5% 18% -28.9%
15% -39.0% 14% -35.7%
20% -45.0% 10% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$44 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses25 / 25
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage7d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $97 $0 +0%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $89 +$8 +9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $84 +$4 +5%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $30 −$3 -11%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $81 +$7 +9%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $81 −$79 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $93 −$12 -12%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $95 −$3 -3%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $30 −$14 -46%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 18 $30 −$13 -44%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $30 −$9 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $30 +$11 +36%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $101 −$65 -64%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $116 −$48 -41%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $100 +$27 +27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $204 +$12 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $289 +$14 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $67 +$16 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $264 +$9 +3%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $242 +$23 +10%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $225 +$16 +7%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $61 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $61 −$29 -48%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $61 −$22 -36%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $61 +$46 +76%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $70 +$13 +18%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $148 −$148 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 +$15 +7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $183 +$19 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $151 +$22 +14%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $55 +$6 +11%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $56 +$37 +67%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $56 +$24 +43%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $56 −$37 -65%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $70 −$53 -75%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $61 +$132 +215%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $40 +$8 +21%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $22 +$12 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $41 +$44 +109%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $40 −$20 -48%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $41 −$19 -46%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $201 −$187 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 90¢ $98 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $97 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $97 8h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $89 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $88 11h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 94¢ $84 14h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 76¢ $27 18h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 84¢ $30 19h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $88 30h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $81 31h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 41¢ $81 43h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn SELL Ben Shelton 71¢ $81 43h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 80¢ $93 45h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 79¢ $93 2d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 80¢ $95 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 43¢ $16 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 44¢ $17 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 55¢ $21 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 SELL Under 100¢ $41 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 70¢ $50 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 78¢ $30 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 84¢ $30 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 79¢ $30 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 73¢ $30 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 29¢ $36 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 57¢ $68 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 100¢ $127 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $116 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records