Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5f1…acbd other 33 markets active 2d ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-18%) realized −$59 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%7W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$30
14 days+$26
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$65
crypto 30% −$60
sports 12% −$19
world 7% +$64
tech 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +124.3% +102.9% 50% 50% +20.1%
≤30d 9 +56.5% +41.6% 44% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 24 -13.7% -21.9% 29% 29% -26.6%
all 24 -13.7% -21.9% 29% 29% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 29% -26.6%
10% -29.4% 29% -33.7%
15% -36.2% 25% -40.1%
20% -42.5% 25% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses7 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)24 / 33
History coverage68d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 30¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 21¢ $8 $14 +$5 (+67%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-25%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes $21 $5 −$16 (-75%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $4 −$4 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 +$48 +193%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $4 +$18 +439%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 11 $40 −$14 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$9 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$8 +149%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Joao Fonseca vs. Ben Shelton: Total Sets O/U 2.5 May 06 $15 +$20 +131%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 16 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 16 $3 −$3 -93%
CA Boca Juniors vs. Barcelona SC: O/U 2.5 Apr 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 14 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $15 +$31 +206%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 14 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 44h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $73 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 28¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $25 6d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes $26 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $14 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $8 6d
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 6d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 6d
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 7d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 7d
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $20 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes $1 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes $3 12d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY Yes $8 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.95 · official $109.98 (match) · 97 history records