Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:50:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd5ef…764f crypto 481 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$85 (+0%) realized +$105 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate77%370W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days−$118
14 days−$91
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$103
sports 5% −$114
world 1% −$91
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -24.9% -32.0% 47% 42% -16.2%
≤30d 24 -16.0% -24.0% 54% 50% -14.0%
≤90d 281 -4.3% -13.4% 80% 26% -11.8%
all 480 -3.0% -12.2% 77% 27% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 27% -10.2%
10% -20.6% 16% -18.8%
15% -28.3% 10% -26.6%
20% -35.3% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$37 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses370 / 110
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)480 / 481
History coverage119d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 78¢ 67¢ $143 $123 −$20 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $215 +$17 +8%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $199 −$72 -36%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $240 +$50 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $192 +$47 +25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $40 −$22 -54%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$13 +43%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$3 -13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 −$50 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $54 +$17 +31%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $121 −$67 -55%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $206 −$98 -48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -62%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $80 +$24 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 +$12 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $89 +$39 +44%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$27 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $65 +$15 +23%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $58 +$8 +13%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$11 +111%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 +$20 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $12 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 16 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 15 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 15 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 15 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 09 $39 −$39 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 09 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 09 $49 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 09 $59 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 09 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 09 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 09 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 09 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 09 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 09 $53 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 09 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 09 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 09 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 09 $40 −$4 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 78¢ $144 12m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $144 50m
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $87 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 42¢ $87 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $127 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $127 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $199 2h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $290 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $240 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $239 5h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $192 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $1 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 34¢ $19 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $40 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $43 4d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $30 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $17 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Over 46¢ $18 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $50 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $49 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $20 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $22 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $54 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $54 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $121 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 91¢ $105 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 83¢ $106 6d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $101 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.82 · official $122.82 (match) · 1160 history records