Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D5 0xd5ee…e90b weather 1581 markets active 0h ago coverage 95d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$60 (-1%) realized −$50 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%1244W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day24.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$12
14 days+$27
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$71
politics 0% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 +1.9% -7.8% 91% 42% -7.9%
≤30d 489 +1.5% -8.2% 91% 38% -8.3%
≤90d 1525 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 48% -9.2%
all 1557 -0.6% -10.0% 80% 47% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 47% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 17% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 5% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses1244 / 313
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)1557 / 1581
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day24.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 1557 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 16? No 86¢ 100¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? No 93¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? No 94¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 16? No 92¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 87¢ 98¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? No 97¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 83¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? No 96¢ 94¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? No 88¢ 94¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? No 87¢ 90¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? No 94¢ 93¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 92¢ 93¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? No 85¢ 89¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 17? No 93¢ 90¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? No 79¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 87¢ 84¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 85¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? No 83¢ 83¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? No 77¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 91¢ 69¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on June 16? No 93¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? No 93¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $7 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $7 8m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 77¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $7 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $7 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $6 6h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 79¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 17? BUY No 94¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $7 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 96¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $7 26h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $7 30h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 80¢ $6 30h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 16? BUY No 91¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 93¢ $7 31h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $7 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.08 · official $148.09 (match) · 3500 history records