Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:15:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5ee…4841 politics 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,141 (-0%) realized −$1,153 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,727per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$464now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$16
14 days−$41
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$363
politics 43% −$125
sports 9% −$688
culture 3% −$7
economics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$4
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +2.3% -7.5% 6% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 84 -14.3% -22.5% 6% 4% -10.4%
all 135 -3.4% -12.6% 15% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 10% -10.0%
10% -21.0% 10% -18.6%
15% -28.6% 8% -26.5%
20% -35.6% 7% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,398) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$19 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$464
Realized−$1,153
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,727
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $453 $464 +$12 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $2,398 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $4,221 −$5 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $1,244 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,531 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $3,030 −$5 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $4,264 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,673 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,572 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,656 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $2,963 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $62 −$62 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $74 +$72 +97%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $8,294 −$9 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,126 −$4 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,714 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,643 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $4,754 −$6 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 29 $1,567 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $4,048 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $2,911 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,290 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $50 +$42 +83%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,034 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,805 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,467 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $3,120 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May? May 19 $752 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,663 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,924 −$7 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $2,885 −$4 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $2,370 −$3 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $367 41m
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $367 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $256 23h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $256 25h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,081 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,261 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,169 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,171 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,242 6d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,244 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,317 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,320 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,313 7d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,315 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,278 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,280 9d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $453 10d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,529 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,531 11d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,628 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,631 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,345 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,347 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,441 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $464.27 · official $464.27 (match) · 459 history records