Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D5 0xd5ec…9ff1 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized +$31 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 261d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% −$3
crypto 39% −$3
other 14% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 5 -42.5% -48.0% 20% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.0% 0% -11.1%
10% -52.9% 0% -19.6%
15% -57.5% 0% -27.3%
20% -61.7% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$31
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage261d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $59 $6 −$53 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 19? Dec 27 $288 +$1 +0%
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) Nov 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 16 $345 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 08 $46 −$6 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 14¢ $60 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 181d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $288 189d
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) BUY Commanders 51¢ $3 222d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $345 222d
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $345 222d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $40 261d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $46 261d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.67 · official $5.25 (match) · 9 history records